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GOP Debate Marked by Infighting as Candidates Get Personal in Opening Round_我的网站

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A | 8 月 26 日消息，英伟达将在当地时间周三（26 日）压轴公布第二财季业绩，为本轮科技公司财报季收官。

B |

Republican presidential contenders traded nasty, sometimes personal barbs at the 2024 campaign season's first primary debate, ignoring the debate time-limit bell to shout over each other and accuse each other of dishonesty and a lack of presidential qualifications.

But if anyone prevailed at the debate, it was someone who wasn't there: former president and current front-runner Donald Trump, who had the debate audience booing candidates who criticized him and cheering those who defended him.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was the most aggressive in his blunt assessment of Trump, who is set to turn himself into authorities for processing Thursday in Georgia’s Fulton County on racketeering and other charges related to the effort to take away President Joe Biden's 2020 win in Georgia and give it to Trump.

"Someone's got to stop normalizing this conduct. Whether or not you believe the criminal charges are right or wrong, the conduct is beneath the office of the president of the United States," Christie said in a lengthy response that at one point was stopped by overwhelming boos from the live audience.

When 38-year-old tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy – who spent much of the evening needling his opponents like they were annoying parents who think they know more – jumped in to accuse Christie of running "a campaign … based on vengeance and grievance against one man," the former Garden State governor and onetime prosecutor turned his ire on Ramaswamy.

"You sit here talking about how you want to stand up for the rule of law. It can't be selective," Christie said, adding that Ramaswamy says different things about Trump in his book than he says while campaigning before a GOP electorate still very attached to the former president.

"I know a lot better than you do. You've never done it," Christie said. "We stood up for law and order. I am not going to bow to anyone when we have a president of the United States who disrespects the Constitution."

At one point, the boos and jeers became so loud Christie could not speak. "Booing is allowed, but it doesn't change the truth," he said. Moderator Bret Baier had to physically turn around in his seat and admonish the crowd to be quiet, while fellow moderator Martha McCallum tried to keep the candidates from drowning each other out.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson got no love either from the crowd when he said Trump was "morally disqualified" from being president again. "Obviously, I'm not going to support someone who's been convicted of a serious felony," said Hutchinson, whose extensive resume in all three branches of government has not gotten him above low single digits in primary polls.

Former Vice President Mike Pence made the issue more about his own behavior on Jan. 6, 2021, saying he did what was legally and morally right in refusing to reject the electoral slates sent to Washington to certify Biden's win.

"No one is above the law, and President Trump is entitled to the presumption of innocence every American is entitled to," Pence said. "But the American people deserve to know that ... he asked me to put him above the Constitution. I chose the Constitution and I always will."

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley stayed above the fray in a debate that descended into a political food fight. She confidently displayed her foreign policy credentials, knocking down opponents who said the U.S. should cut off aid to Ukraine.

She noted her strong anti-abortion position but said the rest of the field needed to be “honest” with the American public and let them know a national ban was not in the works because it would never survive a Senate filibuster. And she blamed her own party as well as Democrats for running up the public debt.

Still, Trump is far and away the favorite to win the GOP nomination. A Des Moines Register/NBC poll released this week had Trump with the support of 42% of Iowa Republicans, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a distant second, with 19% support. The remaining candidates on stage Wednesday night, including Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, Pence, Haley, Ramaswamy, Christie and Hutchinson, all had support in the single digits.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum got just 2% in the poll and his condition at the debate – forced to stand for two hours despite having badly injured his leg while he was playing basketball Monday – seemed to underscore his wounded status.

"I think I took it too literally when they said, ‘Go to Milwaukee and break a leg,'" Burgum said in arguably his most memorable line of the night.

DeSantis, who has struggled in the polls in recent weeks, talked about his signature issues, such as eliminating discussion of certain racial and gender issues in schools but did not do anything to establish himself in his earlier role as back-up choice to Trump.

Ramaswamy has edged into second place in a couple of polls, ahead of a flagging DeSantis, and the debate dynamic reflected it. Buoyed by his emergence from unknown to candidate-of-the-hour, Ramaswamy confidently slammed his opponents for their positions, their character and even their age, saying Americans needed a new generation of leadership.

The rest of the group was having none of it.

"Let me explain it to you. I can go slower for you this time," sneered the usually decorous Pence, when Ramaswamy criticized his policies. "Now is not the time for on-the-job-training, We don't need to bring in a rookie," the former vice president added.

Ramaswamy cast himself as an outsider, saying, "The real choice we face in this primary is this: Do we want a super PAC puppet or do you want a patriot who speaks the truth?"

Ramaswamy dismissed a young voter's question about climate change, saying more people had been injured from "bad climate change policies" than climate change itself, which he called “a hoax.” He accused his opponents of unspecified corruption, saying, "I'm the only person on this stage who isn't bought and paid for."

Christie noted that Ramaswamy's comment about being the "skinny guy" with a "funny name" was almost word for word what Democratic President Barack Obama said when he was first running for president.

"I'm afraid we're dealing with the same kind of amateur,” Christie said.

Scott, who underscored his anti-abortion credentials and commitment to reducing government, urged a conversation on issues.

"Going back and forth and (being) childish is not helpful to the American people," Scott said.

Haley, exasperated by interruptions and escalating voices from much of the rest of the stage, noted, "This is exactly why [former British Prime Minister] Margaret Thatcher said, 'If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman.’" It was one of the few comments Haley could get in, edgewise, during the raucous debate.

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C | 市场对这份财报的期待很高，压力同样不小。作为 AI 热潮中最受关注的芯片公司，英伟达的业绩表现长期影响整个 AI 板块的市场情绪。

D | 过去几个季度，即使公司盈利持续超过预期，只要超出的幅度没有华尔街想象中那么大，投资者依然会选择抛售。摩根大通数据显示，英伟达过去四次发布财报后，即使业绩均超出预期，此后 30 天内股价平均仍下跌约 5%。

E | 这一次的市场环境更加敏感。今年夏季 AI 板块经历明显波动，资金开始撤离此前涨幅巨大的芯片和存储股，投资者也越来越关注一个问题：AI 基础设施建设还能维持目前的扩张速度多久？英伟达今年以来上涨 13%，但较 5 月创下的近期高点已经回落 11%。

F | 据《商业内幕》报道，华尔街将在这份财报中重点寻找以下信号：摩根大通：业绩有望再次超预期，并上调指引摩根大通预计，英伟达第二财季业绩将再次超过市场预期，同时提高本季度业绩指引。该行预计第二财季营收约为 940 亿至 950 亿美元（注：现汇率约合 6,332.79 亿至 6,400.16 亿元人民币），较第一财季增长 15%。

G | 分析师认为，即使业绩表现出色，英伟达财报发布当天也未必会迎来明显上涨，过去几次财报后的股价下跌就是前车之鉴。

H | 相比单纯的营收和利润数字，投资者电话会议上的几个问题可能更能左右股价：英伟达与竞争对手相比处于什么位置英伟达基础设施融资协议的具体安排中国业务未来如何发展HBM 规格下调会对 Rubin 和 Rubin Ultra 平台造成什么影响摩根大通分析师指出：“从估值看，英伟达已经降到明显低于历史常态的水平，目前的估值倍数并不昂贵。每股收益预期持续提高，也一直支撑着股价上涨。随着盈利继续扩大，我们预计这一趋势还会延续。”摩根大通维持英伟达“增持”评级，目标价 280 美元（现汇率约合 1,886 元人民币），较当前股价有 31% 的上涨空间。高盛：客户融资和 Rubin 进展可能成为股价关键高盛预计，英伟达第二财季业绩将表现稳健，下一财季指引也会明显高于市场一致预期。

I | 主要推动力来自数据中心需求持续增长，以及 Rubin 预计从第三财季开始扩大出货。高盛预计，第二财季每股收益可能比市场预期高约 6%，第三财季则可能高约 12%。

J | 在高盛看来，最值得关注的是英伟达规模达 5,000 亿美元（现汇率约合 3.37 万亿元人民币）的客户融资平台，以及 Rubin 扩大出货的速度。投资者还会关注 AI 究竟能创造多少实际收入、超大规模云服务商投资 AI 基础设施能够获得怎样的回报，以及英伟达能否继续维持目前的毛利率。高盛维持“买入”评级和 285 美元（现汇率约合 1,920 元人民币）目标价，对应 33% 的上涨空间。美国银行：英伟达仍是行业首选美国银行继续看好英伟达的发展前景和估值，同时提醒投资者关注公司全面押注 AI 带来的风险。英伟达近期与 OpenAI 达成的 1,050 亿美元（现汇率约合 7,073.86 亿元人民币）交易就是这种战略的典型体现。一旦 AI 需求降温，英伟达的增长速度和资产负债表都可能面临压力。

K | 美国银行分析师维韦克 · 阿里亚指出：“英伟达仍是行业首选。按 2027 日历年计算，预期市盈率约 16 倍，PEG 仅 0.3 倍，估值已经处于近 10 年来最低水平。需求却仍在改善，我们认为市场对存储成本和循环融资的担忧过度了。”美国银行认为，投资者应该重点关注五个问题：Vera Rubin 何时发布、供应情况如何，以及英伟达对 2025 年至 2027 年累计营收超过 1 万亿美元（现汇率约合 6.74 万亿元人民币）的预测是否改变与 OpenAI 交易中的供应商融资和兜底安排究竟如何设计，以及公司何时能把更多现金用于股票回购存储价格上涨后，英伟达还能否维持毛利率超大规模云服务商、加速计算基础设施客户和企业客户的需求增长有多快如果开源 AI 模型比闭源模型更加普及，会怎样影响英伟达能够覆盖的市场规模美国银行维持“买入”评级和 350 美元（现汇率约合 2,358 元人民币）目标价，对应 64% 的上涨空间。杰富瑞：Rubin 增长势头预计非常强劲杰富瑞预计，现有数据表现“极其稳健”，英伟达有望再次交出超过预期的业绩，并提高本季度预测。布莱恩 · 柯蒂斯带领的分析师团队预计，第二财季营收将达到 950 亿美元（现汇率约合 6,400.16 亿元人民币），第三财季进一步升至 1,080 亿美元（现汇率约合 7,275.97 亿元人民币）。

L | Rubin 也有望快速放量。到本财年结束时，Rubin 预计将贡献英伟达超过 40% 的总营收。杰富瑞分析师指出，目前的市场环境对英伟达有利，估值不高，新一轮产品周期也已经启动。

M | 能源供应则是仍需关注的风险。数据中心建设持续加速，AI 芯片需求增长的速度已经快于电网增加供电能力的速度。杰富瑞表示：“长期来看，我们仍然看好 AI，但希望管理层说明，是否准备采取措施解决这些可能拖慢部署速度的不利因素。”杰富瑞给予英伟达“买入”评级，目标价 300 美元（现汇率约合 2,021 元人民币），对应 40% 的上涨空间。瑞银：存储涨价反而利好英伟达瑞银预计，英伟达第二财季营收约为 940 亿至 950 亿美元（现汇率约合 6,332.79 亿至 6,400.16 亿元人民币），第三财季则可能超过 1,100 亿美元（现汇率约合 7,410.71 亿元人民币）。蒂莫西 · 阿库里带领的分析师团队指出，Blackwell 业务保持稳定，Rubin 也开始逐步贡献收入，为第四财季更明显的营收增长做准备。

N | “我们认为真正重要的是数字，而不是叙事。这次财报电话会议之后，投资者应该会更加相信英伟达能够在 2027 日历年实现超过 15 美元（现汇率约合 101.1 元人民币）的每股收益，并在 2028 年达到 20 美元（现汇率约合 134.7 元人民币），这足以继续推动股价上涨。”瑞银指出，超大规模云服务商已经提高今年的资本支出预算，其中很大一部分增长来自存储价格上涨。分析师认为，这一趋势最终对英伟达有利。这次财报电话会议上，公司可能会披露积压订单再次出现明显增长。瑞银维持英伟达“买入”评级和 280 美元（现汇率约合 1,886 元人民币）目标价，对应 31% 的上涨空间。